SB Nation Tampa Bay: All Posts by Jason Collette

James Shields trade: Insta-reactions from around the interwebs

2012-12-10T11:30:17Z

From former ESPN Baseball Analyst and current Diamondbacks announcer Steve Berthiaume

Wow. Had this trade been announced Saturday, Andrew Friedman would have won the Heisman. #Rays #Royals
— Steve Berthiaume (@BertDbacks) December 10, 2012

David Price is understandably hoping this is all a nightmare

Guys guys guys there's been a huge misunderstanding...whenever we all wake up tomorrow Shields and WD40 will still be my teammates...
— David Price (@DAVIDprice14) December 10, 2012

Toby David reminds us of the human element in baseball

Shields has been with #Rays since he was 18. He almost 31 now. He's been thru the ups and downs. This is unfortunate side of baseball.
— Toby David (@TobyDavid) December 10, 2012

Comedian/Actor/Sportsradio guy Jay Mohr loves the deal

The Kansas City Royals just pulled off a straight bank robbery. Shields and Davis for Myers is INCREDIBLE for #royals fans.
— Jay Mohr (@jaymohr37) December 10, 2012

Former GM and current SiriusXM radio host Jim Bowden has already rendered his decision

Let's not sugar coat this deal...Rays win it with a first round knockout. No need to debate or discuss this one.
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 10, 2012

J.J. Cooper from Baseball America points out why the Royals had to do this deal

Love this trade for the Rays. Significant help for TB in 2013. For KC? Comes down to this, they haven't developed starting pitchers...so tonight they had to pay dearly to buy some that another team has developed.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) December 10, 2012

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs punches Royals fans in the babymakers

Odorizzi and Myers... This is why the last time the Royals won 90 games, Ken Griffey Jr was a rookie.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) December 10, 2012

Dodger blogger Mike Petriello weighs in as an innocent bystander

I might not believe this entirely, but you don't have to stretch TOO far to say this deal doesn't even help KC over next 2 yrs, much less 6
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 10, 2012

Jonathan Bernhardt from SportsOnEarth offered his unique sense of humor

The Royals apparently think Wade Davis is a starter, but remember: the Royals also think Luke Hochevar is a starter.
— Jonathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) December 10, 2012

SI.com's Joe Sheehan observes the entire spectrum that reactions covered on Twitter

Loving the gap between MSM react and stathead react to Myers deal. "The Royals are for real now, gutsy move!" vs. "That was dumb."
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) December 10, 2012

One industry source sent along a note:

holy cow...for 2013, I suppose it hurts the Rays, but wow, what a return

Another industry source sent this along:

WOW...****ing amazing. Nothing more dangerous than a GM trying to save his job

Royals fan extraordinaire @devil_fingers makes a strong point:

I hate this trade, too, but simply citing Shields' road ERA as if it means anything is, well, sabermetric Francoeurianism.
— MJK (@devil_fingers) December 10, 2012

Keith Law sees a clear winner:

One final thought before I sign off: Talked to a bunch of scouts/FO folks tonight. Every last one of them said the Rays came out way ahead.
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) December 10, 2012

Lastly, Rany Jazayerli, of RanyontheRoyals.com, had the first review of this trade up on the interwebs - faster than anyone else out there:

this sucks

Now that you've had time to think about this trade, what is your reaction?

Defense Upgrades

2012-12-06T17:01:26Z

As the Rays edged out the New York Yankees by a single game in the 2010 standings, they also came in just ahead of them in defense runs saved as measured by Bill James, besting the Bombers by six runs. In 2011, as the runs became more scarce, the defense stepped it up a few notches and led the league in team runs saved by a considerable margin. 2012 was a different story as the Rays fell to fifth in runs saved while, ironically, four of the five playoff teams in the American League had negative totals. The difference? Those teams had good offenses that helped overcome defensive shortcomings while the Rays did not for a variety of reasons.

Acquiring offensive help to plug needs in a lineup is expensive in one of two ways. Free agents dig into a team's budget, as we have seen this week alone as three year deals and/or $13M annual average value deals are being handed out left and right to players that are not quite worth it. They're also expensive to trade for because, most of the time, you have to give something of value to obtain something of value. This week, the Rays have made each kind of move as they gave up a prospect of some value in Derek Dietrich to acquire Yunel Escobar and went their tried and true method of clearance rack shopping for a first baseman in acquiring James Loney. The offensive merits of both players were covered in other pieces, but the defensive impact of these moves has not been given as much attention.

The two player acquisitions give the Rays a chance to right the ship on the infield defense that visibly affected game outcomes in 2012, especially while Evan Longoria was on the disabled list.

BillJamesOnline has many defensive metrics in their partnership with The Fielding Bible, nearly all of which are behind their paywall. The stats are broken down into a variety of categories, but also show us how good the players to their left and right. Let's review the new acquisitions against what they are replacing using those statistics.

Range Factor: Range Factor is the number of each player's successful chances (putouts plus assists) times nine divided by the number of defensive innings played.

The table below shows how the recent and new shortstops and first basemen compare to one another just on range factor as well as each player's two or three year average (depending on sample size):

PLAYER	RF	AVG
Kotchman	8.8	9.4
Pena	9.3	8.8
Loney	9.1	9.1

Johnson	4.1	4.0
Zobrist	4.3	4.5
Rodriguez	4.4	3.9
Escobar	4.8	4.6

At first base in terms of range, it is mostly a wash from 2012 but both Carlos Pena and Loney scored better than Kotchman did in Cleveland. At shortstop, Sean Rodriguez showed the most range of the three shortstops Maddon utilized but all three fell well short of what Escobar did with Toronto last season.

By Area: The defensive statistics are also able to show how each player did to his left, right, with balls hit at him, and how they handled ground balls. The table below shows each player's 2012 results as well as their three-year averages:

PLAYER	'12 to Right	Avg	'12 At	Avg	'12 to Left	Avg	GB	Avg
Pena	2.0	4.0	2.0	0.7	2.0	-3.0	7.0	2.7
Kotchman	0.0	0.0	-2.0	-1.0	3.0	4.0	2.0	2.7
Loney	7.0	3.0	5.0	4.3	-3.0	-2.0	9.0	6.3

Johnson	5.0	5.0	-7.0	-4.5	-7.0	-1.5	-10	-1.5
Zobrist	2.0	0.5	0.0	-1.0	-5.0	-3.5	-2.0	-3.5
Rodriguez	6.0	3.0	-6.0	-4.0	0.0	-0.5	1.0	0.0
Escobar	4.0	4.7	3.0	0.7	17.0	9.3	23.0	16.0

One part that stands out is Loney's ability to move toward the second base hole. Last season, he excelled at that compared to the two former first basemen and has also been strong at balls hit at him. The one area where he has struggled a bit compared to Pena and Kotchman is playing balls down the line. While both Loney and Kotchman are left-handed throwers, Kotchman grades better playing balls to his hand side while Loney is the best on his glove side. Lastly, Loney has been quite strong in handling all groundballs when compared to Pena and Kotchman.

At shortstop, all but Zobrist were good at making plays to their left. Both Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez have had their issues with throws from the hole, but the scored hold up for them. However, the numbers are not kind to either player at balls hit at them and are even less kind when grading both players covering the area behind second base. Zobrist was a team player in taking over the shortstop position last season, but his overall efforts pale in comparison to what Escobar did in 2012 and over the past three seasons.

David Price, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb, and James Shields each had groundball rates greater than 50 percent last season as did several relievers, which emphasizes why infield defense is important to the team. In examining the spray charts when the pitchers work at Tropicana Field (courtesy of katron.org), we can see where each pitcher tends to allow infield balls in play:

There have been surprisingly few balls hit down the first base line but Loney's skills to his right should help given the frequency of groundballs in that direction while Escobar's talents up the middle will help on balls the Rays have traditionally struggled to convert into outs. Escobar should also be quite comfortable with the team's defensive alignments given the fact Toronto frequently positioned their infield into shifts, most notably with Brett Lawrie moving from third base to short right field in overshifts on left-handed hitters.

Saving Runs: The Fielding Bible includes Plus/Minus, which represents the number of plays above and below average according to video scouts. They also show actual runs saved which evaluates positions differently. For example, both corner infielders and middle infielders have scores based on their range in the field. Lastly, The Fielding Bible computes total runs so we can see how each player contributes on offense, defense, and baserunning while ranking them against their peers.

PLAYER	'12+/-	Avg	'12 Runs Saved	Avg	'12 Rank	Avg	'12 Total Runs	Avg
Pena	5.0	1.7	0.0	-0.3	16	18.3	68	81.3
Kotchman	0.0	1.7	-1.0	1.7	20	15.3	46	58.7
Loney	8.0	5.7	6.0	7.0	7	6.7	51	75.3

Johnson	-4.0	2.5	-6.0	1.0	25	25	45	38
Zobrist	-4.0	-4.5	0.0	-1.0	17	20	123	128.7
Rodriguez	2.0	1.0	1.0	1.5	n/a	n/a	50	64.7
Escobar	22	14.0	15.0	10.3	4	5.7	100	105.7

In terms of defense, there is little doubt that the Rays have upgraded both shortstop and first base defensively. Loney does most things better than Kotchman and Pena did over the past two seasons while Escobar is a clear upgrade from the spare parts that filled the position last season and allows Zobrist to return to his swiss army knife role that he has flourished in.

The offense certainly needs more help as the team continues to re-tool this off-season, but the process behind the recent acquisitions seems quite clear. The 2013 team defense should be a step back toward the efforts that drove the team into the post-season in 2011 rather than the one that was a major factor why they did not return there in 2012.

Is Cheaper Better?

2012-12-02T19:03:12Z

According to Matt Swartz of MLBTradeRumors, Badenhop was projected to make $1.6M in arbitration as a groundball specialist capable of pitching in key double-play situations, facing right-handed hitters that were prone to groundballs, while pitching in mostly low leverage situations. Not that $1.6M is a crazy figure for those skills, but those types of skills are rather replaceable on the open market.

Badenhop did his role as he held all batters to a 52 percent groundball rate and held the 174 right-handed batters he faced to a .263 wOBA last season. In low leverage work, he held the 176 hitters he faced to a .289 wOBA and held the 23 hitters he faced in high leverage situations to a .123 wOBA. The damage to his overall numbers came from 63 hitters faced in medium-leverage situations that had a .344 wOBA against him (all data from Fangraphs).

Badenhop was essentially a two-pitch pitcher last year throwing sinkers and breaking balls with the occasional show-me change-up. It is a recipe that he has used now for four full seasons in the major leagues which has resulted in the following outcomes:

YEAR	GB%	ERA	FIP
2009	54%	3.75	3.46
2010	57%	3.99	3.67
2011	59%	4.10	2.95
2012	53%	3.03	3.62

The data at BrooksBaseball shows his results and averages for his pitches each of the last four seasons. When examining that data, Badenhop's BABIP by pitch type is rather interesting:

PITCH	2009	2010	2011	2012
Sinker	.338	.308	.368	.278
Slider	.346	.323	.261	.409

The sinker is his primary weapon and his BABIP for that pitch for his career is .319. The 2011 batted ball results as well as the ERA-FIP were likely two of the things that attracted the Rays when seeking out Badenhop last off-season when it was rumored the Marlins were going to non-tender him. Despite moving from grass to the Astroturf at Tropicana Field, Badenhop saw his sinker's BABIp drop 90 points last season to a career-low .278. This improvement was in no doubt driven by the excessive defensive positioning the Rays do on the infield compared to most other teams. In 2011, Bill James calculated the Rays used 216 shifts when a ball was put in play, which is at least three times more frequently than the Marlins.

One option the Rays could consider to fill the groundball machine vacancy is free agent reliever Jamey Wright. The 38 year old reliever has pitched in the major leagues since before the Tampa Bay franchise came into existence, and has spent the last six season as a groundball specialist for the Rangers, Royals, Indians, Mariners, and most recently, the Dodgers. He was granted free agency after this past season, the third straight season he had been paid $900K by an employer. His most recent contract was a minor league deal with an invite by the Dodgers who added him to the 40-man roster just before the end of Spring Training.

Over the past three seasons, Wright has had a 62.4 percent groundball rate, which is the fourth-highest among all qualified relievers. His OPS versus right-handed hitters has dropped each of the past four seasons from .797 to .758 to .725 and finally to .699 this past season. He has actually done better work against left-handed hitters as he has held them to a sub-.700 OPS in three of the past four seasons. In 2012, he held 139 left-handed hitters to a .283 wOBA while 167 right-handed hitters had a .309 wOBA against Wright.

Wright is a three-pitch pitcher who uses a sinker, breaking ball, and a cut fastball. The table below shows his BABIP by pitch type over the past four seasons:

PITCH	2009	2010	2011	2012
Sinker	.339	.302	.326	.354
Curve	.206	.194	.243	.310
Cutter	.282	.346	.239	.400

Wright's 2012 season looks similar to Badenhop's 2011 season in terms of the outlying BABIP. While last season's .354 is close to 2009's .339, it is important to note that Wright pitched for the Royals in 2009 who had the league's worst UZR/150 rating by a significant margin that season. In 2012, the Dodgers were in the middle of the pack.

Wright does have some swing and miss capabilities as well, particularly with his curveball. Last season, he struck out 18 percent of the hitters he faced, a rate he had not approached since working as a starter for the 2003 Royals.

Wright has made a transition of sorts in the past two seasons as he, like Fernando Rodney last year, has moved on the pitching rubber, but in the opposite direction. Wright now pitches off the third base side of the rubber and the move lines up rather well with the improvements in his whiffs per swing rates.

Wright has signed a minor league contract with an invite to the major league camp each of the past four seasons. Odds are, he will do that for a fifth straight off-season sometime in the next few months and once again make less than $1M for whoever he works with. His high groundball tendencies certainly fit the profile of the turn 'em and burn 'em approach the Rays have used for low leverage/groundball specialists in recent seasons and the defensive prowess of the club could be another perfect match for a groundball specialist coming off some batted ball misfortunes in the previous season. The Rays could also be thinking about handing the role over to Josh Lueke, but an experienced Wright would be a rather cheap insurance policy to have in camp in case that plan does not work out.

The Escape Artist

2012-11-29T15:01:50Z

Most conversations about Jeremy Hellickson quickly move to the fact that for two straight seasons, he has had a rather sizable gap between his ERA and his FIP. In 2011, his 2.95 ERA bested his 4.44 FIP and last sesaon, his 3.10 ERA came in well ahead of his 4.60 FIP. For his career, he has stranded 82.2% of his baserunners and has a 3.06 ERA compared to his 4.46 FIP.

Since 2008, there have been 24 times when a starting pitcher has posted a LOB% of at least 80 percent. James Shields did in in his magical 2011 season and David Price as well as R.A. Dickey did it in 2012 on their way to the Cy Young Awards. Yet, Hellickson is the only pitcher to do it twice. Over the past two seasons, Hellickson has limited the 320 hitters he has faced with runners in scoring position to a .257 wOBA which is 13 points better than any other pitcher during that time frame (data via FanGraphs):

Pitcher	Batters Faced	wOBA
Jeremy Hellickson	320	.257
Doug Fister	336	.270
Justin Verlander	373	.271
Dan Haren	381	.277
Max Scherzer	339	.279
Ivan Nova	376	.283
Ricky Romero	452	.292
CC Sabathia	417	.294
Josh Beckett	310	.295
Justin Masterson	465	.298

How exactly has he managed to avoid the luck dragons like this? Here is how Hellickson stacks up against his counterparts in the rotation over the past two seasons:

Pitcher	Batters	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jeremy Hellickson	320	.189	.305	.280	.257
Jeff Niemann	162	.215	.281	.387	.286
David Price	372	.245	.330	.361	.299
James Shields	355	.242	.316	.419	.318
Alex Cobb	199	.256	.345	.353	.304
Wade Davis	254	.245	.353	.473	.352
Matt Moore	184	.252	.374	.463	.354

Over the past few weeks, we heard a lot about players performing in clutch situations as the Miguel Cabrera camp built the narrative for giving him the AL MVP over Mike Trout. "He steps up in the clutch," or, "He does what his team needs him to do when they need him to do it," are explanations we hear when people fawn over how a player is seemingly better in one situation over another. In Hellickson's case, he does do something different when pitching with runners in scoring position.

In 2012, there were 88 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title in major league baseball. I compared their overall batting averages on balls in play to their BABIPs with runners in scoring position. Zack Greinke was the worst in the league as his BABIP rose 67 points in those situations, something that has been a three-year trend for him. The Rays-related note in that list is that David Price, James Shields, and Matt Moore all showed up in the bottom 15 of that list. Price had a 16 point difference in his BABIP, Moore a 34 point difference, while Shields had a 41 point difference. Only Hellickson was neutral as his difference was a scant four points. The chart below shows how their batted batted ball outcomes compare overall versus RISP situations:

Pitcher	GB_RISP	GB_All	FB_RISP	FB_All	IFFB_RISP	IFFB_All
Niemann	45%	47%	36%	34%	15%	15%
Price	52%	49%	31%	32%	11%	9%
Cobb	57%	57%	24%	23%	6%	9%
Shields	58%	49%	25%	32%	9%	9%
Hellickson	47%	38%	39%	41%	17%	14%
Moore	33%	37%	46%	43%	8%	15%
Davis	42%	36%	43%	43%	8%	14%

Both Hellickson and Shields show the same improvement in groundball rates when pitching with runners in scoring position despite the different wOBA results. Only Hellickson and Price have been able to induce the weakest non-bunt contact, the infield fly, in this situation. Using a partial set of 2012 pitch data from BrooksBaseball that spanned from April to August, there was little difference in the types of pitches Hellickson threw while runners were in scoring position. The only noticeable change was he used his cut fastball 13 percent of the time, a pitch he threw just seven percent of the time during the season. Here is where he located each pitch type while pitching in RISP situations compared to non-RISP situations (UPDATED; credit to @SandyKazmir):

His recipe appears to be sinkers and cutters to the corners, curves and change-ups down while getting strikes with his fastball while also throwing them on the outer edges while trying to stay away from the sweet spot of the bat.

There are three basic outcomes for a pitcher: the good (strikeout), the bad (walk), and the ugly (home run). Here is how the staff stacks up against one another in those situations:

Pitcher	HR/9_RISP	HR/9_All	K%_RISP	K%_All	BB%_RISP	BB%_All
Niemann	0.5	1.0	20.4%	19.1%	6.2%	6.7%
Price	0.4	0.8	22.6%	24.1%	10.2%	7.0%
Cobb	0.4	0.7	18.1%	18.0%	10.6%	7.7%
Shields	1.2	1.0	24.2%	23.4%	7.9%	6.4%
Hellickson	0.6	1.1	17.8%	15.9%	13.8%	8.7%
Moore	1.1	0.9	22.3%	23.9%	14.7%	10.5%
Davis	1.1	1.1	17.3%	13.2%	11.8%	7.9%

Hellickson has had his struggles with home runs, but that is not something that has happened with runners in scoring position. In fact, he has permitted just five home runs over the past two seasons in that split. Only Price, who has allowed just four (all in 2011) while facing 372 batters with runners in scoring position has a better ratio on the team. Hellickson's walk rate is noticably higher with runners in scoring position, which speaks to a willingness to not give into one hitter and attack the next one if need be.

We are over 400 innings into Jeremy Hellickson's career, and he owns a career .244 BABIP and has stranded 82.2% of his baserunners. Traditionally, both numbers scream regression to the means of .300ish and 72%, but Hellickson is doing things differently and they are working. The luck dragons will not stay away forever, but Hiccup Hellickson Haddock is doing what he can to tame them.

Tampa Bay Rays extend Evan Longoria until 2023

2012-11-26T14:25:31Z

Per team press release:

The Tampa Bay Rays and Evan Longoria have agreed on a contract extension that could keep the All-Star third baseman in a Rays uniform through the 2023 season. Longoria’s new contract incorporates the salaries for 2013 through 2016 from his original contract and extends six more years through 2022 for an additional $100 million. The deal also includes a club option for 2023.

"We drafted Evan in 2006 with the belief that he and the organization would grow with each other and together accomplish great things," said Rays Principal Owner Stuart Sternberg. "That is why the Rays and Evan signed a long-term contract in 2008, and it is why we are extending our commitments today. Evan has clearly become a cornerstone player and a fixture in our organization. We are proud of what we have accomplished these past seven years, and I expect the best is yet to come."

"Evan has all of the attributes we seek in a player," said Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman. "His determination and work ethic inspire others around him. He is devoted to his craft and strives to improve himself every year, and he defines success in terms of team performance and achievement. It’s exciting to know that Evan will be manning third base for the Rays for many years to come."

The 27-year-old is a three-time American League All-Star, two-time Rawlings AL Gold Glove winner at third base and was the 2008 AL Rookie of the Year. After five major league seasons he already ranks second on the Rays all-time list with 130 home runs, third with 456 RBI and fourth with 161 doubles. Longoria is one of 11 active players to average at least 25 HR and 90 RBI over his first five seasons. In 2012, Longoria was limited to 74 games due to a partially torn left hamstring which he suffered on April 30. Despite missing more than half of the season, he hit .289 (79-for-273) with 17 home runs, 55 RBI, a .369 on-base percentage and .527 slugging percentage. He batted .358 (24-for-67) with runners in scoring position. The Rays were 41-44 during Longoria’s absence, but went 47-27 (.635) with him in the starting lineup.

The Rays scored nearly a run more per game during his time on the active roster (4.8 to 3.9). After being reinstated from the DL on August 7, Longoria started 51 of the team’s remaining 54 games (26 at third base, 25 at designated hitter). In September and October, he hit .296 (32-for-108) with eight home runs—five of which gave the Rays the lead—and slugged three home runs in the regular-season finale, October 3 vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

The Rays selected Longoria as the third overall pick in the 2006 June Draft, making him the first player drafted under Sternberg and Friedman. On April 18, 2008, only six games into his major league career, the Rays signed him to a multi-year contract worth a guaranteed $17.5 million over six years and potentially $44 million over nine seasons, including the club options for 2014 through 2016. Longoria underwent a minor procedure on his left hamstring on Tuesday, November 20, and is expected to be fully recovered for spring training.

***

Ed note: According to Fangraphs, Longoria has produced $128M of value in his time with the Rays so far and now they have him under control until 2022. If you combine this extension with what is left on his current deal, he just signed a 10-year deal for $136M. The lingering question now: does the team have enough money to show the same commitment to its franchise pitcher?

Rays fans have longed for the team to show a long term commitment to its stars - and now they have. Hopefully, fans can reciprocate in kind at the turnstiles in 2013 as the economy improves.

2013 Spring Training Schedule Released

2012-11-20T16:13:28Z

The 17-game home schedule includes games against all four AL East opponents as well as visits by the defending AL champion Tigers and two trips from the Phillies. The final game is on March 30th against the Tigers at Tropicana Field. Tickets range from $10 to $27 with a full schedule and pricing PDF guide available by clicking here.

Price Wins Cy Young Award

2012-11-14T23:40:09Z

The voters in the Baseball Writers Association of America deemed David Price, Justin Verlander, and Jered Weaver as the three finalists for the American League Cy Young Award. Each had a narrative to claim in the process. Price led the league in ERA and tied with Weaver for the highest win total at 20 wins as well as win-loss percentage, Verlander had the highest Wins Above Replacement score at Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs, threw more innings, completed more games, and struck out more hitters than any other pitcher, while Weaver also led the league in fewest hits allowed and fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings.

In the end, the voters used a variety of methods to fill out their ballots whether it be more advanced metrics, traditional metrics, or narratives and chose David Price as the 2012 Cy Young winner. Price garnered 14 first place votes, 13 second place votes, and a third place vote to total 153 points besting Verlander's total of 149. The irony is that one voter gave Fernando Rodney a first place vote and gave Verlander the 2nd place vote while two LA-based writers gave Weaver 2nd place votes over Verlander thus giving Rodney a save in Price's win tonight.

With the first place finish, Price becomes the first pitcher in franchise history to win the award and it gives him a first and second place finish in the Cy Young voting in just three full seasons of pitching in the major leagues. Price was able to overcome Verlander's superior WAR grades with a combination of traditional narratives, extensive research, or perhaps a blend of both. A tale of the tape approach of the three finalists show just how similar Price and Verlander were in 2012.

Price may have had a shot at the triple crown of pitching stats if Verlander was not super-human in terms of the workload he took on. Verlander faced 120 more batters than Price did in 2012 - the equivalent of nearly five extra games pitched. Verlander led the league in strikeouts, yet the two pitchers were just half a percentage point apart in terms of the percentage of hitters retired by strikeout.

Price faced the toughest quality of opponents as the hitters he faced had an aggregate OPS as well as a True Average Value (via BP) a few points higher than what Verlander faced in 2012. Price enjoyed the home field advantage of pitching in Tropicana Field that Verlander did not enjoy pitching in Comerica Park that slightly favors hitters. Price used the advantage to allow fewer extra base hits than Verlander did, but Verlander won the battle of batting average of balls put into play despite playing with a less than stellar infield defense.

Price also led the American League in quality start percentage at 81 percent, marking just the 37th time in the past 22 seasons a pitcher has had at least 80 percent of his starts graded as quality starts and the second time Price has done so in his career joining Felix Hernandez as the only other active pitcher with multiple seasons having 80 percent or more of their starts as quality starts.

In 2010, Price was not able to overcome the battle against WAR as Felix Hernandez took home the hardware. This time around, WAR lost out to the tried and true narratives of awarding 20-game winners and ERA champions as Price became the 18th of 19 pitchers to win the award while leading the league in both wins and ERA. This should not be construed as a slight to either argument since there is no formal criterion for the award, but it is rather interesting to see the traditional statistics surge back into the lead after falling behind the advanced statistics in 2010 despite the influx of newer voters into the selection process and the continued proliferation of sabermetrics into the national discussion.

Just about any way you mix the numbers, David Price and Justin Verlander were rather close in their 2012 performances and that is reflected in the final voting for the award. Price's selection marks stops a four-year streak of the highest WAR according to Baseball-Reference predicting the eventual winner.

In honor of Price's success, we re-live one of the greatest images in DRaysBay history

Catching Souvenirs

2012-11-08T15:01:51Z

We already know that using catcher ERA as a meaningful stat is a fool's play simply because there is no correlation there. There are simply too many variables in play from the pitcher involved, the ballpark, the lineup, and even weather to make the statistic very predictive.

Yesterday, Sandy Kazmir shared some research in a daily thread about how Jeremy Hellickson pitched when Jose Molina was behind the plate compared to when the others were back there. It appears to be a sample of some of the larger work in a fan guide project he is spearheading, or, at least I hope it is as his initial posts on the topic look promising.

To that point, I thought it would be fun to look at the home run rates when a team's primary catcher is behind the plate compared to when the back-ups are in the lineup.

In 2012, primary catchers caught just 57 percent of the innings in baseball games. Only six catchers caught as many as 70 percent of the innings their team's pitchers threw: Miguel Montero, Matt Wieters, Yadier Molina, A.J. Ellis, A.J. Pierzynski, and Russell Martin. Montero led all catchers in baseball for a second consecutive season catching 1190 of the 1433.2 innings Arizona pitchers threw. The 709.2 innings that Jose Molina caught in 2012 represented 49 percent of the innings pitched while Jose Lobaton, Chris Gimenez, and Stephen Vogt picked up the remaining 750 innings. (click images to enlarge)

There were 4933 home runs allowed in baseball this past season and the primary catchers called the pitch that allowed those home runs 2800 times, or 57 percent of the time. The graph below shows the primary catcher's home run rate (HR/9) when behind the plate compared to the team's home run rate for the 2012 season:

For the most part, the numbers lineup but a few teams had some noticeable differences. Wilson Ramos of the Nationals and Joe Mauer of the Twins had rates well above the overall team rate while Geovany Soto and Jonathan Lucroy had rates well below the team rate. Jose Molina came in just slightly above the team's home run rate; his rate was 0.96 while the overall team rate was 0.88.

The chart below compares the home run rates of the primary catchers for each club against other catchers on the team:

Some teams have noticeable differences when the primary catcher is not involved, to both extremes. Milwaukee pitchers allowed more home runs when Jonathan Lucroy was not catching while Nationals pitchers gave up fewer home runs when Wilson Ramos was not catching as did Yankees pitchers without Russell Martin, Red Sox pitchers without Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Twins pitchers without Joe Mauer.

The final chart shows the net gain or loss in home run rate between the primary catchers and back-up catchers sorted in order of rate increase:

It would be worth the exercise to see if these differences come from the calling habits of the catchers (or managers) to see if some rely heavily on the fastball more than others. Kurt Suzuki would make an interesting case as his home run rate was lower than the other catchers in Oakland, but he was traded to the Nationals in mid-season. When Wilson Ramos was the primary catchers for the Nationals, the team allowed 71 home runs in 687.2 innings for a 0.93 rate. When Suzuki took over the primary catching duties for the team, that rate dropped to 0.67 when he caught games as 26 home runs were given up in 364.1 innings of work.