SB Nation Tampa Bay: All Posts by Bryan Grosnickhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/49019/tb-fave.png2012-12-27T10:15:45-05:00https://tampabay.sbnation.com/authors/bryan-grosnick/rss2012-12-27T10:15:45-05:002012-12-27T10:15:45-05:00Free Tim Beckham?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3iYhBOepmQh3EmkxFf5nU_Ck-2U=/0x8:1000x675/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5633927/20120305_jla_an4_137.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why would a former #1 overall draft pick have virtually no chance to break camp with the big club? Because Tampa Bay is chock full of depth, if not impact talent.</p> <p>In 2008, the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> drafted high school shortstop prospect <span>Tim Beckham</span> No. 1 overall in the Rule 4 Draft. Expected to be a longer-term developmental project with huge upside, Beckham has been a bit of a disappointment for the Rays thus far. Though he has climbed steadily through the minor-league ranks, finally reaching Triple-A during the 2011 season, Beckham hasn't become the All-Star caliber talent many expected.</p>
<p>When he was drafted, scouts drooled over his five-tool background and potential. But as he's moved up the minor league ranks, he hasn't developed much power, his defensive ability has been a running issue, and his bat just hasn't been substantially above league-average at nearly any level of the minors. He's fallen off all the top-100 prospect lists, and is primed to return to Triple-A Durham for his age-23 season. Not only that, but with <span>Hak-Ju Lee</span> likely ensconced as the Durham (and Tampa Bay) shortstop of the future, Beckham is likely to be a second baseman or super-sub, even at the Triple-A level.</p>
<p>But what if I told you that, if you squint a little, you could look at Tim Beckham and see a decent major-leaguer. If Beckham played for any other franchise, or didn't have the stigma of a No. 1 overall pick, I'm sure plenty of major-league teams would be excited to have him. Despite not hitting terribly well at any minor league level, he also hasn't hit poorly at any level. Beckham's wRC+ has hovered around the 100 level in almost every stop, meaning that his bat has been league-average almost everywhere in the minors. For a middle infielder, that's not too bad. And if Beckham really does show an ability to adapt to multiple positions, including some shortstop and second base, he could have quite a bit of value as a utility player.</p>
<p>The problem is, Beckham is on the absolute wrong team for his skillset. Just take a moment and look at this list of MLB / AAA middle infielders that the Rays have ready to go:</p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><span>Ben Zobrist</span> (SHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Yunel Escobar (RHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><span>Ryan Roberts</span> (RHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><span>Sean Rodriguez</span> (RHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><span>Reid Brignac</span> (LHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Elliot Johnson (SHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Hak-Ju Lee (LHB)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Tim Beckham (RHB)</span></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p>It's not like all of these players are created equal. Some of them (like Zobrist and Escobar) are assured of starting postions. Others (like Lee) are assured to spend the season at Triple-A. Let's take a quick look as to where these players might end up to start the 2013 season.</p>
<p>Personally, I believe the team gets the most value out of playing Ben Zobrist at second base on a regular basis, given how good his bat and glove are compared to the average 2B. Moving Zo to right field or first base as the need requires is fine, but having him consistently available in the middle infield is critical to maximizing this team's offensive output.</p>
<p><span>Yunel Escobar's</span> value is tied to his ability to play shortstop, and should be the starter at that position for as long as he's with the team, and effective. He's a two-to-four win player at that position, again providing serious surplus value. So that gives the team two regular starters at the major league level.</p>
<p>Next, there's Ryan Roberts and Sean Rodriguez. These two players are, in many ways, interchangeable. Both of them play multiple infield positions, with Rodriguez having more flexibility, including the ability to fill in at shortstop. Both hit right-handed, both play solid enough defense, and both are likely to spend the full season on the 25-man roster. One or the other (likely Roberts) is the presumptive starter at DH for now, and the other will be a right-handed bat off the bench and backup infielder.</p>
<p>Then, there's the combo of <span>Elliot Johnson</span> and Reid Brignac. While Johnson is a switch-hitter, he has more success as a left-handed hitter, and Brignac is a lefty as well. Both of these players are weak-hitting "shortstops+", meaning that they can fill in at a few positions, but really give the team most value via defense at the six. Unfortunately, neither player hit well in 2012, with Brignac being egregiously bad. Nevertheless, I'd expect one of the two to break camp with the team as a platoon option and defensive replacement, with the other serving time at Durham.</p>
<p>Finally, Hak-Ju Lee is a left-handed hitting shortstop, but one with great defense, blazing speed and better offensive upside than Johnson or Brignac. Lee is one of the Rays' top prospects, but will probably earn a full season at Triple-A before breaching the major league roster in 2014. But if Yunel Escobar turns out to be a big hit, and the team is unable to trade him, Lee might be traded himself, or held back. Basically, either he or Escobar will be the everyday shortstop for the Rays for the forseeable future, barring some mishap.</p>
<p>And that leaves our Mr. Beckham out in the cold. The major league team doesn't need a starting second baseman, not with Ben Zobrist. The team certainly doesn't need a right-handed hitting utility infielder with Rodriguez and Roberts on the major-league roster. And Beckham could move to the outfield, but it's unlikely that his bat will play well enough to displace someone like <span>Brandon Guyer</span> or even <span>Sam Fuld</span>.</p>
<p>The best thing that the Rays can hope for is for Beckham to get off to a very hot start in Triple-A Durham, where he'll probably be the starting second baseman. If Tim's bat gets hot, the Rays will probably survey the trade market, and I could see the team moving Beckham while his value is high, or shifting Sean Rodriguez or Ryan Roberts to another team instead.</p>
<p>But the Rays would have a very nice problem if Beckham has a strong start to 2013, as middle infielders, especially ones who can play shortstop, are incredibly valuable. <span>Didi Gregorius</span> pried <span>Trevor Bauer</span> loose from the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Diamondbacks</a>. <span>Stephen Drew</span> signed for nearly $10 million dollars coming off a pretty poor season. A good Triple-A season from Tim Beckham, one in which he posts above-league-average production could transform a potential logjam in the middle infield into a very real opportunity to upgrade this team. And while the Rays would probably like that No. 1 overall pick back (hello, <span>Buster Posey</span>), perhaps the team could make that selection worth something.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/27/3806466/tim-beckham-tampa-bay-rays-spring-training-ben-zobristBryan Grosnick2012-12-20T08:01:05-05:002012-12-20T08:01:05-05:003 free agent fits for the Tampa Bay Rays
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r2z7Z3r0wC0y-tVN2b81zfUvHDI=/0x97:3155x2200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5313715/151291841.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jeff Curry</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Rays have dramatically changed their team this offseason, making crucial additions to offset the losses of long-time Rays James Shields and B.J. Upton. What's next?</p> <p>One might say that the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Tampa Bay Rays</a> have already had a busy off-season. You may have heard that they've dealt the franchise's best pitcher (<span>James Shields</span>) for a guy who might, one day, become a franchise outfielder (<span>Wil Myers</span>). The team has waved goodbye to <span>B.J. Upton</span>, and is now saying hello to <span>Yunel Escobar</span> and <span>James Loney</span>. And all these moves have been designed to keep the team competitive in 2013, while helping increase the foundation for future seasons.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/18/3780042/miami-marlins-free-agent-rumors">Like I've done previously with the Miami Marlins</a>, I'm posting below a few guys who I think might be good free agent pickups for the Rays. I'm not sure what the budget situation is in Tampa, especially following the acquisition of Roberto Hernandez, but each of these players should fit comfortably inside the money saved through the James Shields deal.</p>
<h4>
<span>Jason Frasor</span> (estimated contract: 2 years, $7 million)</h4>
<p>Frasor is a 35-year-old reliever coming off a down season but, I've gotta be honest, I really have no idea if the contract I've estimated above is anywhere near accurate. It's tough to predict just how much money teams are willing to commit to relief pitchers. I mean, come on, <span>Brandon League</span> got over $22 million and three years this offseason. But if this is something Frasor could accept, then the Rays should bite the bullet and sign him ... and a one-year deal would be even better, probably.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the Rays can always use another sharp arm in the bullpen, and Frasor fits the profile. A strikeout-happy reliever, Frasor had a tough time last season. But over at The Hardball Times, Glenn DuPaul <a target="_blank" href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/relievers-who-could-improve-in-2013/">predicted several free agent relievers who could bounce back next year</a>, and Jason Frasor was one of them. You see, Frasor still strikes out a host of hitters, especially right-handed ones, and a poor 2012 ERA might have come from unusual variance in HR% and BABIP.</p>
<p>Over his career, Frasor has been very solid, and spent many years in a not-so-friendly pitching environment in Toronto. Moving to a much friendlier park (for pitchers at least) in Tampa would probably lead to an improvement over Frasor's already solid career numbers. He's not going to blow the doors off the place, but if he gets close to his career 3.77 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate, the Rays would be lucky to have him.</p>
<h4>
<span>Lance Berkman</span> (estimated contract: 1 year, $6 million)</h4>
<p>The Rays right now have a major offensive hole at the LF/DH/1B positions, and Lance Berkman is the perfect guy to try to fill it. Berkman is an all-world hitter when he's healthy, and could probably play first base without embarassing himself. But the spot for Lance is at DH, especially on a Rays team that could use all the offense it can muster. It's a gamble to think that Berk might be healthy, or even be able to spot up 400-500 plate appearances, but if he does make it onto the field, there's every indication that he'll hit the cork out of the baseball.</p>
<p>What the Rays (and everyone else) should <i>not</i> expect, is a return to 2011 form for the Big Puma. Berkman's 2011 was the best offensive season of his already-storied career. He racked up a 163 wRC+ -- that's 63% better than league average! No, I think the Rays should expect something a bit closer to 2010, the season that Berk spent between the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Astros</a> and the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a>. That year, Berkman had his worst season, with only 14 HR and a .248/.368/.413 triple slash line. That was good for a 114 wRC+, not exactly the same deal. But if Berkman can stay healthy for much of a whole season, well, that's probably a floor for his offensive production.</p>
<p>Again, I'm really just spitballing here on the contract amount, but inking the former Astros / Yankees / <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cardinals</a> slugger to a one-year deal would be a coup for the Rays. This is a team that could use a player with Lance's combination of power and on-base ability. As a DH (and occasional replacement for Loney at 1B), Berkman would get to do what he does best: hit.</p>
<h4>
<span>Grady Sizemore</span> (estimated contract: 1 year, $1 million)</h4>
<p>If Lance Berkman is an injury risk, Grady Sizemore is an extra-big injury risk. Sizemore makes Berkman look like Cal Ripken Jr. Nevertheless, he's an extreme upside play. Prior to 2009, Sizemore was one of the best outfielders in all of baseball. He combined power, speed and skill to be the total package in center field. Ever since then, he's suffered through a performance decline and a number of severe injuries, even missing the entirety of the 2012 season. Today, Sizemore is recovering from another microfracture surgery. While Sizemore is not expected to be ready for Opening Day, and has said he won't sign a contract until he's healthy, he could provide value on a pro-rated contract as a fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>I wouldn't expect Sizemore to be anything like the player he was in 2008, truly. One would have to imagine that his leg and back injuries will have sapped his speed and range. If Sizemore is going to be a valuable major-league contributor again, it will be through excellent bat value, and, perhaps some decent defense in a corner. While Sizemore is unlikely to ever be a five-to-eight-win player ever again, if he could provide better-than-league average hitting (say, a 100-110 wRC+ and 10%+ walk rate) after he returns from injury, he could be a decent pickup.</p>
<p>Adding Sizemore on a low-cost contract, especially one that would lock him in for a second year (either as a two-year deal or with a club option) gives the Rays a valuable asset if he does rebound. And at the very least, he'd be a hedge against players like <span>Brandon Guyer</span>, <span>Sam Fuld</span>, or others providing below-replacement performance at the big-league level.</p>
<p><i>[Update: I've updated this post to reflect Sizemore's statement that he won't be signing with a team until he's healthy, which would probably be June at the very earliest.]</i></p>
<p>So, there you have it. Three guys who could help the Rays win this year, without putting a damper on future seasons with long contracts. And none of these guys would block critical players going forward, if used wisely.</p>
<p>I guess the problem with this article is that, well, I'm not Andrew Friedman. These are a few low-cost, high-upside acquisitions that I think might help out this team. The only thing is, judging by track records, the Rays front office knows much better about these things than I do. Perhaps instead of posting articles like this, we should just sit back, wait and see what the Rays do.</p>
<p><i>All stats from <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com">FanGraphs</a>.</i></p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/20/3786554/tampa-bay-rays-free-agent-rumorsBryan Grosnick2012-12-18T10:23:11-05:002012-12-18T10:23:11-05:003 free agent fits for the Miami Marlins
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cF51zwxU4RG6lH8neNqUiNbPWl4=/0x1:600x401/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5213181/gyi0061327551.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jim McIsaac</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I know what you're thinking. The Marlins? Spend money? I know, I know, but hear me out here.</p> <p>After a huge sell-off of the team's most highly-paid and highly-productive players, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> look more like a Triple-A franchise than a major league one. Though there are some dark days ahead for this team, the minor league system has some talent, and it's nigh-impossible to lose more than 40 games in a season. So that's what passes for hope these days in South Florida.</p>
<p>With free agency winding down, the Miami Marlins aren't looking to spend big this offseason, but the team still could add another bat or arm on a short-term, low-priced contract. Heck, the team's already done that with new <strike>out machine</strike> left fielder <span>Juan Pierre</span>.</p>
<p>Below are a few speculative adds for the Marlins, as the team looks to add players in a number of slots to start the 2013 season. I'm trying to list players who would be smart fits for the team, and not players who are certainly <i>not</i> in the Fish's price range or skill level. So no <span>Michael Bourn</span> here. Take a look.</p>
<h4>
<span>Ryan Raburn</span> (estimated contract: 2 years, $4 million)</h4>
<p>Ryan Raburn may have been a part of the pennant-winning <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a> team of 2012, but he did as much to sabotage that team's chances during the season as players on <i>opposing</i> teams of the Tigers did. Raburn was awful in 2012, posting a -1.5 FanGraphs WAR, meaning that if you were to replace him with an average, freely-available Triple-A player, his team might have been about a win and a half better. And Raburn did that damage in only 222 plate appearances. The main culprit was a .216 wOBA, which was in part due to both a power outage (only a .254 slugging percentage) and a terrible .224 batting average on balls in play. Raburn split time between the outfield corners and second base, as he has for much of his career.</p>
<p>While Raburn's 2012 was an unmitigated disaster, his bat has played at least at league-average (or close to it) in every season but his last. Raburn has a career .345 wOBA when hitting against left-handed pitchers, and he has to be due to regress a little back to his true talent level, even if his skills are declining. While Raburn is not a good defensive second baseman, perhaps he could be paired with incumbent pivot <span>Donovan Solano</span> in a defense-offense platoon, given that Solano pretty much can't hit anything, but would be better defensively.</p>
<p>This would certainly be kind of a worst-to-first situation for the versatile Raburn, but at this point he's without a whole lot of options. The stats show that Raburn's 2012 is a bit of an outlier, and I'd expect him to return to a decent level of production with his bat, especially if he's used in more of a platoon role. The combo of showing some defensive versatility as well as a reasonable bat from at least one side of the dish, make him a fit on a team such as the Marlins.</p>
<h4>
<span>Placido Polanco</span> (estimated contract: 1 year, $1-2 million)</h4>
<p>It's time to find value at a low price wherever you can, and Polanco might be the only free agent third baseman worth anything at all on the open market. Coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, Polanco has still managed to put in 344 games over his three-year stint with the division-rival Phils, despite always seeming injured. While his once-effective bat has diminished into something wholly dependent on his batting average on balls in play, Polanco would be a supreme upgrade over <span>Greg Dobbs</span> at third base due to one critical factor: defense.</p>
<p>Polanco, over his career, has been as effective a defensive third baseman as nearly anyone in baseball. UZR, an advanced defensive metric used at FanGraphs, regularly grades Polanco as worth a win or more each season, just based on his defensive efficiency. Even in limited action with the Phillies last year, Polanco was worth about half a win with the leather. When you combine that with a bat that is below league average, but not painfully so, you've got an okay stopgap 3B who can do the job while the team hopes <span>Zack Cox</span> develops. And he and Juan Pierre played together last year for Philadelphia, so that's something, right?</p>
<h4>
<span>Tim Stauffer</span> (estimated contract: 2 years, $4 million)</h4>
<p>Stauffer, only one year removed from a season in which he had a 3.73 ERA in over 180 innings, was released by the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> at the end of the 2012 season, following a serious elbow injury. Stauffer only pitched in one major-league game in 2012, but was actually quite good in 2010 and 2011. While Stauffer's not much of a strikeout pitcher, he gets ground balls with some alacrity (51.8% groundball rate in 2011), but remains a bit homer-prone. The vast dimensions of Marlins Park might help with that, as it is fairly similar to Stauffer's former home in San Diego.</p>
<p>If the 30-year-old righty can be healthy enough to contribute in 2013, he could add a veteran presence (for whatever that's worth) and some low-cost, moderate-quality innings to a Marlins rotation with quite a few question marks. And, most importantly, he'll give the Fish an opportunity to deal <span>Ricky Nolasco</span> at some point for more young players.</p>
<p>Though the Marlins won't be very competitive next year, the addition of these veterans on short, low-risk contracts could help mitigate some embarassment risk during the 2013 season. While you shouldn't expect these players to change the fate of the 2013 Marlins, they will provide some inoffensive (in Polanco's case, perhaps quite literally <i>inoffensive</i>) production at weak spots in the Marlins' depth chart, and allow you to focus on the few good players the team has left.</p>
<p><i>All stats come from <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com" target="_blank">FanGraphs</a>, and thanks to the <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013-mlb-free-agent-tracker" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Tracker</a>.</i></p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/18/3780042/miami-marlins-free-agent-rumorsBryan Grosnick2012-12-10T10:56:26-05:002012-12-10T10:56:26-05:00James Shields to KC, Myers and more to Tampa Bay
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aA6yOO13VTiSiWDTfzPWRtDgBcQ=/0x145:2713x1954/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4731227/20120927_jel_sl8_006.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All offseason, there's been word that the Rays were looking to trade a starting pitcher for an upgrade in the lineup. Now that it has happened, what does it all mean?</p> <p>On Sunday night, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Royals</a> pulled off a major, major trade that will be a stark referendum on both teams' processes. The Rays dealt rotation stalwart <span>James Shields</span>, starter-turned-reliever-turning-back-to-starter <span>Wade Davis</span> and a player to be named later (or cash considerations) to Kansas City for outfield uber-prospect <span>Wil Myers</span>, pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi, LHP <span>Mike Montgomery</span>, and rookie-level third baseman Patrick Leonard.</p>
<p>While the Rays are giving up starting rotation certainty, they're adding a couple of very serious prospects who are just about ready for the big leagues. While Myers and Odorizzi may not start 2013 on the big league roster, they're all but certain to end the season in St. Petersburg, and should be fixtures on the Rays until about the end of this decade.</p>
<p>While this may not be the largest trade of this offseason, or even the most surprising, this deal has all the hallmarks of a true blockbuster. It involves a franchise player (Shields) going to a new club where expectations are huge. It features at least one -- really two -- important prospects finding new homes (Myers, Odorizzi). It showcases a player who gets a change of scenery, and perhaps a new role, looking to re-establish value (Davis). And it involves two lottery-ticket young players who could hit, and provide a team with some unexpected value (Montgomery, Leonard).</p>
<p>Let's take a look at how this deal affects the Rays both in terms of players lost and prospects gained, shall we?</p>
<h4>Goodbye, Big Game James (and Wade)</h4>
<p>Off to Kansas City is the greatest pitcher in Rays history, James Shields, as well as starter-turned reliever Wade Davis. Rays fans all know "Big Game" James as the face of the Rays franchise through some dark years, and he's best known for his stamina and fearsome changeup. While Shields has been a fixture in Tampa for some time, his contract situation (where he's owed a little more than $22 million over the next two years) and the pitching depth in Tampa made him somewhat expendable. Davis, on the other hand, is owed about $7.5 million (not counting club options from 2015-2017) over the next two seasons.</p>
<p>While I'd argue that James Shields profiles as more of a No. 2 starter than an ace, that's really a question of semantics. What he is for sure, is a really good starting pitcher, on a friendly contract. His 2012 was excellent, and almost as good as his 2011. Not only did Big Game James throw over 227 innings over 33 starts, but he raised his strikeout percentage from 2011 (up to 23.6%), lowered his walk percentage (down to 6.1%) and increased his rate of ground balls (up a whole lot to 52.3%).</p>
<p>The ground ball percentage is actually the most interesting part of Shields's 2012, at least for me. Shields has always been a pitcher who has struggled to keep fly balls in the park, especially in key situations and on the road. While Kansas City's Kaufman stadium projects to limit homers in much the same way, if Shields allows hitters to hit fly balls, historically, they're on their way out of the park. But if Shields can continue to jack up that ground ball percentage, he'll limit the most damaging type of hit allowed. And that will undoubtedly be a good thing for Shields and the Royals.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Wade Davis transformed in 2012 from an uninspiring starting pitcher to a devastating reliever. I know, stop me if you've heard that one before. Both his FIP and ERA dropped about two runs in the transition, which is even much more stark than one might usually expect when converting to relief. Almost all of this comes from a nearly-doubled strikeout rate, which jumped from 13.2% in 2011 to 30.6% in 2012. That's phenomenal. If he could keep that up, Davis would be an excellent late-inning reliever.</p>
<p>Of course, the Royals are hoping that he can take some of the improvements Davis made in 2012, and carry them back to the starting rotation. In all honestly, I like this idea very much. While Davis will definitely lose a mile per hour or two off his pitches in the transition, Davis was a very good starting pitcher in the minors, with very good peripheral numbers. As a starter, he'd be much more valuable than as a reliever, even if he was a very good one. And if the starting experiment doesn't work out, he can always go back to being a good, cheap setup man.</p>
<p>As a result of the trade, there is a chance, and not a bad one, that the Royals will be a good team in 2013. They've already got a rather potent offense, and young hitters <span>Eric Hosmer</span>, <span>Mike Moustakas</span> and <span>Salvador Perez</span> look to have room to improve. The biggest weakness Kansas City had was, of course, pitching. Well, James Shields is unquestionably the type of pitcher the Royals should be looking to acquire, rather than <span>Jeremy Guthrie</span> or Ervin Santana. And if Wade Davis can transition back to the rotation (where he desperately wants to be, I've heard), perhaps this can really push the Royals forward in 2013.</p>
<p>But baseball isn't always just about the upcoming year. The Royals aren't suddenly a powerhouse World Series contender for the upcoming season. They're really just an above-average team. And the cost, as I'm sure you've heard elsewhere, was steep.</p>
<h4>The Rays' Return</h4>
<p>Any discussion of this trade begins with Wil Myers, Minor League Baseball Player of the Year for 2012. Myers annihilated minor league pitching last season, on two levels. After starting off 2012 by abusing Double-A pitchers to the tune of 13 homers and a .351/.421/<b><i>.739(!)</i></b> slash line, Myers was promoted to Triple-A for the brunt of the 2012 season. Though he didn't hit quite as powerfully in the next 99 games, he still managed another 24 homers and a .304/.378/.554 line, good enough to give him 37 dingers on the year. If it weren't for the Royals' unnerving fascination with <span>Jeff Francoeur</span> and/or their desire to keep Myers down to have him work on his K-rate or keep his service time low, there's little doubt he could have been an effective major-league hitter at the age of 21.</p>
<p>Now, Myers isn't exactly <span>Mike Trout</span>, or even Bryce Harper. For one, Myers is still a strikeout machine. To strike out about a quarter of the time between Double-A and Triple-A is to invite criticism, even when you're closing in on a 40-homer campaign. Major league pitchers will exploit the holes in his swing and his approach if he doesn't make improvements. And as a former catcher, Myers still has some work to do to improve his defense in the outfield, though he projects at least as an average defender at either right field, center field, or even third base.</p>
<p>In the end, Myers is probably the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues today, and should be an impact hitter in the outfield for the Rays. The upper limit of his projection is a prototypical power-hitting corner outfielder with above-average defense, in other words, something a bit like <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span> or (gasp!) Ryan Braun. The low-end projection is probably something just a bit less exciting: a platoon outfielder with real pop against lefties and average corner defense. But I'd be much more surprised if he hit the low end of the projection than the high end, and the reality could be something more reasonable: a once-in-a-while All-Star rather than a perennial MVP candidate.</p>
<p><span>Jake Odorizzi's</span> inclusion in this deal was a surprise, at least for me. Best known as one of the key pieces in the Royals' previous major pitching trade (remember <span>Zack Greinke</span>?), Odorizzi is a big-time starting pitching prospect with plenty of athleticism and a four-pitch repertoire. While Jake had a little difficulty in limited action in the bigs last season, he still projects as a mid-rotation starter who's about ready for prime time. His main goals need to be to work on his command and the development of his secondary pitches, as his fastball won't blow hitters away. But I see Odorizzi as an eventual middle-of-the-rotation starter, especially in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Stadium under the tutelage of Jim Hickey.</p>
<p>The sneaky part of this trade, thanks to Odorizzi's inclusion, is that the Rays basically still have the same starting pitching <i>depth</i> they had before dealing Shields. Of course, swapping out Shields for Odorizzi in a potential rotation certainly makes that pitching staff worse, but the team still has room to slot in new starters if one struggles or is injured, leaving the rotation an overall strength, not a weakness.</p>
<p>Mike Montgomery used to be the crown jewel of the pitching side of the Royals' stacked minor league system, as a left-handed power pitcher with staggering stuff. But after another disappointing year in Triple-A, where his strikeout rate fell and he showed an inability to prevent runners from scoring, the shine is officially off this once-promising prospect. Various talent evaluators have used terms like "a mess" and "completely lost" to describe how Montgomery looked during this past season. His mechanics seem to be coming apart at the seams, and his control and command has failed him. At 23, Montgomery is still young enough to develop, and retains flashes of great stuff, but he's no longer a top prospect. There's a chance he could recover and become a back-end starter or left-handed relief specialist, but don't hold your breath.</p>
<p>Finally, Patrick Leonard is a 19-year-old third base prospect who shined in the Appalachian League in 2012. Leonard is far enough away from the majors to be a real wild card, but Patrick Newman of FanGraphs <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/newmans-own-best-third-baseman-of-2012/" target="_blank">listed him as the eighth-best hot corner prospect he personally scouted in 2012</a>. That's nothing to sneeze at. He's got real power potential, and could end up a major-leaguer. Also, since he's entering his age-20 season without playing above Rookie level, he could end up as a gas station attendant. Wild card!</p>
<p>What's coming in has a much higher risk profile than what's leaving Tampa, make no mistake. One of <span>Matt Moore</span>, <span>Chris Archer</span>, or <span>Jeremy Hellickson</span> is going to need to develop into a true No. 2 starter behind <span>David Price</span>, and the sooner the better. It's incredibly unlikely that the Rays will fill the James Shield void with equal performance in 2013, no matter how well they young pitchers develop. And there is every chance that the young players the Rays have acquired could fail to develop, or fold under big league pressure.</p>
<p>At the same time, the potential reward on this Shields trade is also huge. This is a team that traded four years of guaranteed control over Davis and Shields, and turned it into about fourteen years of control over Myers and Odorizzi. The Rays moved from a position of strength (starting pitching) and picked up a valuable commodity: an extremely high-upside outfielder on a rookie contract. If Myers is even an average big-league regular, he could provide similar value to Shields over the next seven seasons, and if he's a star (which I think he could be), the deal will be a huge win for the Rays.</p>
<p>When you add in the fact that the Rays are saving nearly $30 million dollars over the next two seasons -- which is a huge amount for the cash-strapped Rays -- and a couple of lottery-ticket prospects, the deal looks like a no-brainer for baseball's most exciting front office. If the Rays put that money towards adding more pieces or extending David Price or Wil Myers, this could be a team that will be very competitive both in the short term, and all the way to 2020.</p>
<p>While the Royals were willing to pay big to win now, the Rays took a risk and let their 2013 (and perhaps 2014) performance take a hit in order to lock up potentially-huge assets for the next six years. If the Royals surge and make the playoffs, or even get as far as the ALCS, one might consider this deal a win for Dayton Moore and company. But given all the information, and all the history on the sides of Andrew Friedman and the Rays' brilliant front office, I'd be very, very happy if I were a Rays fan. This team takes the long view and finds inexpensive talent where it can.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/10/3750290/tampa-bay-rays-trade-royals-james-shields-wil-myers-wade-davis-jake-odorizziBryan Grosnick2012-12-10T08:04:45-05:002012-12-10T08:04:45-05:00How bad is the 2013 Marlins' lineup?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U54WKtnBQI6IbNov7s5F5CCgOBE=/0x95:3165x2205/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4702995/20121002_sal_su8_174.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Much has been made of Miami's massive talent sell-off during the 2012 season and offseason. Let's run the numbers on the current team, and find out if things are really as bad as they seem.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a> have torn down what's left of their franchise, in the hopes of saving money and acquiring younger players. As a result, very few members of the 2013 Miami Marlins are established players, and the team is full of young players with questionable bats.</p>
<p>Last season, the Marlins weren't a very potent offensive squad, as evidenced by a stat called "wOBA." wOBA uses the linear weights method of assigning value to different offensive events, and presents a final number on about the same scale as on-base percentage that provides a holistic value of a player's hitting performance. As such, wOBA is able to compare the values of singles hitters, sluggers, walkers and everyone in between.</p>
<p>At any rate, the Marlins have already lost a few of their most productive offensive players (by wOBA and a number of other metrics), including <span>Jose Reyes</span> and Hanley Ramirez. As you might have heard, the team hasn't really added anyone to fill in the slack, save <span>Juan Pierre</span>.</p>
<p>So what are the chances that the Marlins' lineup for 2013 will be any good? Let's do our best to find out.</p>
<p>Thanks to the fine work Jason Martinez and team does at <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/" target="_blank">MLB Depth Charts</a>, we've already got an idea as to what a current Miami Marlins lineup might look like. Of course, that's provided that Jeffrey Loria doesn't change course and open up the checkbook.</p>
<p>Ahaha. Ahahahaha.</p>
<p>Okay, all joking aside, this is a pretty reasonable guess at the Marlins' lineup for 2012, at least against right-handed pitchers:</p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">LF - Juan Pierre</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">2B - <span>Donovan Solano</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">1B - <span>Logan Morrison</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">RF - <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">CF - Justin "I Got This" Ruggiano</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">3B - <span>Greg Dobbs</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">C - <span>Rob Brantly</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">SS - <span>Adeiny Hechavarria</span></span></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p>It's not outside the realm of possibility that against left-handed pitchers Pierre, Brantly and Dobbs would cycle out for <span>Gorkys Hernandez</span>, <span>Jeff Mathis</span> and Kevin Kouzmanoff. And quite honestly, I'd be very surprised if the Marlins don't have a player other than Dobbs or Kouzmanoff manning the hot corner when Opening Day rolls around.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, this is what the Marlins faithful has to work with today. <span>Gary Sheffield</span> isn't exactly walking through that door.</p>
<p>What I'd like to do now, is give you the 2012 wOBAs for each of those eight players. Check this out:</p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Juan Pierre - .320</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Donovan Solano - .314</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Logan Morrison - .308</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Giancarlo Stanton - .405</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><span>Justin Ruggiano</span> - .390</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Greg Dobbs - .297</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Rob Brantly - .358</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Adeiny Hechavarria - .281</span></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p>This is not ideal, under any circumstance, folks. League-average wOBA for non-pitchers in the N.L. last season was, drumroll please, <b>.327</b>. If you could expect that each player would replicate their 2012 performance (which you probably shouldn't), that means that the team has three hitters that are expected to be above league-average.</p>
<p>I'll start with the good news: I think Logan Morrison is a better-than-league-average hitter. He battled injury problems for much of 2012, and in 2011, Morrison had a wOBA of .346 over about a full season. Given his background and ability, I'd guess it more likely that he'll return to that form, rather than put up another terrible season like his last.</p>
<p>Also, Giancarlo Stanton is extremely real. I wouldn't be surprised if he repeated his 2012 performance. Man, is it fun to watch him hit.</p>
<p>That's it, guys. That's all the good news.</p>
<p>The rest of the news is bad. Juan Pierre has his best season since 2009, and his fourth-best offensive season ever in 2012. Counting on him to repeat 2012 is too positive a take. Donovan Solano has done nothing to prove that he's an above-average hitter at any level, including most stops in the minors. Adeiny Hechavarria might be better than Solano, but his bat hardly profiles as anything much above average.</p>
<p>Both Justin Ruggiano and Rob Brantly, two of those three above-average wOBA-ers, are awfully unlikely to repeat their previous levels of performance. Both of these players could post league-average wOBAs, and it's not outside the realm of possibility for Ruggiano to top .330 wOBA again. But .390 is just not very likely for J.R., and if Brantly is back at .358 next season, it will prove that the <span>Omar Infante</span> / <span>Anibal Sanchez</span> trade was an absolute win for the Marlins.</p>
<p>Oh, and Greg Dobbs is the worst. I'm sure he's a nice person and everything, but he was one of, if not <i>the</i> worst player in the National League last season. He should not be playing every day unless it's in Triple-A. And even then ... maybe not.</p>
<p>Add it all up, and the Marlins look to be very terrible offensively in 2013. I know, we're not exactly breaking new ground here, but I think it's amazing that a team with an baseball-murdering monster like Giancarlo Stanton might be the worst offense in baseball next season.</p>
<p>Now, it's probably important to remember that we're just talking about hitting ability here. There's another big half of team performance that this doesn't take into account: run prevention. Especially given how the team plays in cavernous Marlins Park, and how the team's "strength" is probably a young pitching staff with some upside, there might be a little hope on that side of the ball.</p>
<p>The Marlins were already pretty awful in 2012, offensively. In the NL, only the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> were worse with the lumber, discounting pitcher hitting. The Astros might not be great again in 2013, but they are off to the American League. And the Cubs will benefit from <span>Anthony Rizzo</span> playing a full season, and may be adding more bats like Nate Schierholtz. The Marlins, meanwhile, should be worse than they were in 2012, which is probably saying something.</p>
<p>The expectation for the Marlins' <strike>few remaining</strike> fans is probably already rock-bottom. But unless the team picks up a few more bats, expect them to struggle to put up enough runs to be competitive in most games.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/10/3748134/miami-marlins-lineup-2013-season-preview-depth-chart-wobaBryan Grosnick2012-12-05T11:15:26-05:002012-12-05T11:15:26-05:00Rays - Marlins deal: Escobar to Tampa Bay
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NSPRS3wWlxtlNKWgfsjAfF4eIko=/0x110:2908x2049/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4459237/20120930_lbm_ss9_244.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The cost-cutting continues in Miami, as Yunel Escobar never gets a chance to suit up for the Marlins.</p> <p>On Tuesday, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> agreed to a deal that will send <span>Yunel Escobar</span> a few hours northwest to Tampa Bay, in exchange for prospect <span>Derek Dietrich</span>. This is the second trade between the Marlins and Rays, the first being a swap of <span>Burke Badenhop</span> for <span>Jake Jefferies</span> almost a year ago.</p>
<p>This deal, which may look like yet another salary dump on the surface for the Marlins -- well, it actually probably <i>is</i> another salary dump. Nevertheless, Larry Beinfest and company were able to corral a reasonable, if not spectacular prospect for Escobar. Though Yunel's contract is extremely club-friendly, paying him just $5 million next season, the Marlins seem to be giving up on winning even 50 games in 2013 as they attempt to <strike>steal</strike> save money and acquire prospects for the future. Meanwhile, Tampa has to be thrilled that they're acquiring a productive big-league player on a reasonable contract for a prospect outside their Top 12.</p>
<p>Here at SB Nation Tampa Bay, I have the privilege of covering both the Rays and the Marlins. And while the teams have their similarities (no payroll, no fans), it's a rarity to cover a transaction that directly links the two squads. So here's a quick breakdown of the deal, looking at it from both teams' perspectives.</p>
<h4>The Rays Perspective</h4>
<p>Any time you can add a two-to-four-win shortstop for a pittance, you have to do it. So the Rays did. Yunel Escobar immediately becomes the starting shortstop for the Rays, and a linchpin in an increasingly-impressive defensive alignment. The Rays now have excellent defenders at the infield corners, center field, catcher, and a very good one at short and second base (if that's where <span>Ben Zobrist</span> lands).</p>
<p>Never one to hit for big power, Yunel has provided value to teams by getting on base (usually via a high batting average and pretty-good walk rate) and playing solid defense every day. While he usually comes in as a league-average hitter, Yunel has seen his offensive production dip in both 2010 and 2012. In particular, Escobar's 2012 has to be considered a disappointment, as he saw his walk rate sink far below his career norm, leading to a poor .300 OBP. When a player can't offer any real power, having an OBP that low can be a kiss of death, so Yunel will have to hope that on-base percentage rebounds in 2013.</p>
<p>The Rays also have to operate under a restrictive budget, so they'll take a gamble on a player like Escobar, who has character concerns out the wazoo, and performance concerns based on a down 2012. At the same time, he's a much less risky option than running <span>Reid Brignac</span> or <span>Sean Rodriguez</span> or <span>Elliot Johnson</span> out at shortstop every day. At $5 million dollars for 2013, the Rays continue to have enough flexibility to make small moves, add more pieces and perhaps deal a starter for more hitting. Best of all, Escobar has club options for $5 million in both 2014 and 2015, so if he resumes his old form, the Rays can keep him at the same price.</p>
<p>Rays fans may not like Yunel Escobar as a person very much, but I imagine they'll be quite happy with his on-field performance in 2013.</p>
<h4>The Marlins Perspective</h4>
<p>The team's best player not named <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span> -- a player that could have been considered the most effective piece of the franchise-changing Reyes / Johnson / Buehrle deal -- is now gone. In his place is a raw, young middle infielder who hasn't played above Double-A, has questions about his plate discipline and will not stick at shortstop. One could hardly consider this deal a "win" on any level.</p>
<p>Derek Dietrich, the prospect the Marlins received in return isn't a nothing prospect, and he does have some very real upside. With some pop from the left side of the dish, and a glove that profiles nicely at either second base or third base, Dietrich is probably a C+ prospect by most measurements. After hitting 14 homers between High-A and Double-A in 2012, Dietrich needs to finish his transition off of shortstop and work on his plate discipline, as he works his way up to the majors. At his best, he could be a bat-first second baseman or a <span>Kyle Seager</span> clone at third -- but in order to do that, he'll have to up the walks quite a bit.</p>
<p>Given that Escobar was reportedly drawing interest from a number of teams, it's a bit surprising that Dietrich was the best return the Marlins could have received. Word was that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Athletics</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> were in on Yunel, and I can think of three or four other teams (the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a>, and maybe <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> or <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>) that could have been a fit. Perhaps Escobar's bigotry scandal last season, or his reputation as being difficult in the clubhouse depressed his value, but I think he should have been worth a better prospect given his cost and on-field value.</p>
<p>There's a <a href="https://twitter.com/joecapMARLINS/status/276194985685159936" target="_blank">report out there</a> (from Joe Capozzi of the <i>Palm Beach Post</i>) that Escobar was not thrilled about the idea of moving to third base, and that's one reason why the deal was made. Though Escobar should perhaps be willing to "take one for the team" and swap positions, there's good reason for him not to like a move to the hot corner. He's a good shortstop, and though Adeiny Hechevarria may be the six of the future for the Marlins, Escobar would be reducing his value by moving to an easier defensive position.</p>
<p>Now the Marlins are in the market for a new third baseman, and boy, oh boy, does that market suck. The best options available in that price range are guys like <span>Jack Hannahan</span> and <span>Ian Stewart</span>, who hardly profile as everyday players. The Marlins also have hardly anyone available in the upper minors who might be able to handle the load.</p>
<p>Looking at the way the team has rushed young players (such as <span>Rob Brantly</span> last season), maybe it's possible that new acquisition Derek Dietrich could compete for the Opening Day third base job? Dietrich is not ready for prime time yet, as he's not a third baseman yet (he played mostly short and second in 2012), and his power hasn't progressed to the point where he'd be a positive in a major-league lineup, but he's not exactly chopped liver. John Sickels <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/12/3153933/tampa-bay-rays-pre-season-2012-top-20-prospects-in-review">ranked Dietrich at No. 20 in the Rays system before 2012</a>, while FanGraphs' Marc Hulet <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/" target="_blank">had Derek higher</a>, at No. 15.</p>
<p>But as frustrated as Escobar might have been with a position switch, the team would've been far, far better with him around, than they will be without him. Escobar, despite his personal baggage and a down 2012, is a productive middle infielder. And honestly, given his relatively small contract, I'm surprised that not only the Marlins would give him up, but that they would also do so for a fairly middling return. Any argument that the Marlins needed that extra $5 million freed up to chase a third baseman, when the team is already so far below the payroll floor most other teams operate with, is a slap in the face to the team's fans.</p>
<p>But they're used to that by now, so I'm not sure this one hurts very much.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/5/3731176/tampa-bay-rays-miami-marlins-yunel-escobar-winter-meetings-derek-dietrichBryan Grosnick2012-12-03T11:07:43-05:002012-12-03T11:07:43-05:00Rays sign James Loney, but why?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2cwUMto9q0wvIfyaWS0mB7973aw=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4332795/20121002_ajw_aw8_210.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Rays needed a first baseman, and signed James Loney to fill the goal. Is he the right man for the job?</p> <p>Humans are especially good at pattern recognition. Instinctively, we have the ability to see how pieces of data interact with each other, and we're able to extrapolate meaning by filling in the blanks. But it doesn't take a genius puzzle-solver to explain the pattern behind the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a>' most recent free agent agreement. On Monday, reports surfaced that the team has agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract with free agent first baseman <span>James Loney</span>. And it's just the kind of decision that has characterized the team's plan for filling the hole at first base for the past few years.</p>
<p>Loney spent much of 2012 with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, before moving to Boston mid-season. And Loney fits a certain type of Rays profile: he's not much of a hitter with power, but he plays decent defense and was willing to sign with the Rays on a short-term, low-money contract compared to many first-base peers. While the instinctual prototype first baseman probably looks and hits like <span>Mark Teixeira</span>, the Rays seem to go after guys who hit like middle infielders, and it doesn't matter what they look like.</p>
<p>In August, after the infamous <span>Nick Punto</span> trade (sure, we can call it that) that brought Loney to Boston (and <span>a couple of </span><span>other </span><span>guys</span> to L.A.), I wrote <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/8/25/3267505/sox-fans-if-you-liked-casey-kotchman-youll-love-james-loney" target="_blank">an article at Beyond the Box Score</a> that compared Loney to former Rays 1B <span>Casey Kotchman</span>. Kotchman, if you missed it, was a fantastic buy-low for the Rays in 2011, as he racked up an unusual amount of hits for the Rays while playing great defense at first base. In 2012, he reverted to the "true" Casey Kotchman in Cleveland, and was a miserable, miserable failure -- potentially one of the worst everyday players in baseball.</p>
<p>This comparison still holds true several months later.</p>
<p>Both players are considered very good defensive first basemen, who don't provide much of the offensive thump that the prototypical first baseman is supposed to provide. And while Kotchman is considered an excellent defensive first sacker, Loney is merely seen as "good." However, the advanced metrics UZR and DRS both give Loney the advantage in 2012, as Kotchman had a down year according to the (admittedly unreliable) fielding metrics.</p>
<p>The good news is that Loney really is a better hitter than Kotchman. Despite cratering in 2012, Loney has a career 103 wRC+, and that makes him a slightly above-average hitter overall. Kotchman really isn't better than average. The thing is, Loney provides virtually none of the power a first baseman is "supposed" to produce. And given how high the bar is for 1B performance -- in 2012, a down year for first basemen, the average wRC+ for the position was 107 -- Loney is a below-average offensive first baseman by almost any measure. James has only 73 career home runs since his debut in 2006, and his career slugging percentage of .419 wouldn't look out of place for a second baseman.</p>
<p>2012 was an unmitigated disaster for Loney, and easily the worst season of his career. Most WAR metrics saw him as being worse than a Triple-A first baseman or the average waiver wire pickup. The trick will be proving that 2012 was an aberration, not the new normal for James. He'll need to bring his walk rate and BABIP back up (which will raise his OBP), and go back to at least hitting a few balls for doubles and HR. If he can do that, and perhaps come closer to his career 103 wRC+, he can be a real major-league player.</p>
<p>And, more than anything else, the Rays probably signed Loney for reasonable value. James will make $2 million in 2012, a number that fits squarely in the Rays' price range. With a need to fill a number of holes, and not much payroll to do it, the Rays didn't bet big on a <span>Mike Napoli</span> or Nick Swisher-type. And if this cost savings lead to something like, say, signing a <span>Ben Zobrist</span> or <span>David Price</span> to a longer-term deal, I hardly think Rays fans will complain, no matter how bad Loney stinks in 2013. There's always another replacement-level player available if Loney does falter a la Carlos Pena in 2012.</p>
<p>Signing James Loney is a failsafe, perhaps. But if this is a player who gets 145 starts or more at first base, I do fear that the emphasis will be on the "fail" part of "failsafe." However, if Loney is used as a platoon bat, or as a placeholder or replacement as the Rays look to target a different first baseman, then this is a pretty decent deal. The important things to remember are two-fold. First, the Rays had to add value on a very limited budget, and in order to do so, they added a player with significant risk. This type of move has paid off in the past for Freidman and company, and there's a chance it will do so again. Second, James Loney was better than he was in 2012 in every single season of his career, and his decline doesn't have to be absolute. He's a player entering his age-29 season, so it's not as if he's an aged vet already in a decline phase. There is hope.</p>
<p>But hope or no, Loney's not likely to be a panacea for the offensive woes that ail the Rays. The team will need to add offensive value at other places on the diamond, be it DH, LF, or even in the middle of the diamond. But this is the same story we've seen for years in Tampa Bay: the team will gather low-priced assets and slot them in at first as needed. Sometimes these moves pay off, like in the cases of Kotchman and <span>Jeff Keppinger</span>. Other times they work out about as well as <span>Luke Scott</span> and <span>Carlos Pena's</span> second tour of duty. But those are the risks you have to take when running a team in Florida these days.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/12/3/3721574/2012-offseason-tampa-bay-rays-free-agent-signing-james-loney-first-baseBryan Grosnick2012-11-30T09:00:41-05:002012-11-30T09:00:41-05:00Should the Rays deal for Wil Myers?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BqkLqKmnVNvz1IOwh68RBv6ZZ_0=/0x72:547x437/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4046273/20120708_jla_usa_147.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The risks are high, but the rewards are sweet. If the Rays have a chance to add an impact bat, they probably should do it, even if it costs them an excellent starting pitcher.</p> <div>Over the last few days, rumors have been circulating that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a> are doing whatever they can to attract an ace via trade. The team has been linked to several top-flight starters, including <span>Jon Lester</span>, <span>R.A. Dickey</span>, and Tampa Bay Ray <span>James Shields</span>. Part of these rumors include the fact that the Royals may be willing to deal wunderkind outfielder <span>Wil Myers</span>. Should the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> consider dealing Shields, a rotation cornerstone, for a player who hasn't yet hit major-league pitching? It depends on that player, doesn't it?</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Wil Myers is, at least preliminarily, <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/11/13/3643050/kansas-city-royals-top-20-prospects-for-2013" target="_blank">a Grade A prospect according to John Sickels</a>. Plenty of words have been written about his massive power, as he hammered 37 homers in 2012. Almost as much has been written about his positional travels; as Myers was drafted as a catcher, but the Royals moved him off the dish in order to focus on his hitting. But Myers has put in time at two solid defensive positions (3B and CF) in addition to his more likely home in an outfield corner ... and he hasn't embarassed himself either. He'll be a good defensive outfielder, and he already shows enough ability to draw a walk to supplement the power and copious strikeouts he'll rack up.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Basically, Myers is the type of hitting prospect every team wishes they had. There's a non-zero chance that he's the best hitting prospect in baseball right now, one who projects to hit for power, get on base, and play solid enough defense in the outfield.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>At the same time, Myers isn't <span>Bryce Harper</span>, or <span>Mike Trout</span>, or Giancarlo Stanton. He's not a sure thing, and he's probably <i>not </i>going to step in and immediately play at an All-Star level. That just doesn't happen very often. He's not a panacea for every ill that plagues the Rays. What he is, is a hitter with a pretty decent chance of being an above-average contributor in the outfield. He's the rare player with a huge ceiling and All-Star potential who still has seven full years of team control ahead of him.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>James Shields, for all intents and purposes, will be a Ray for another two seasons, at the absolute most. It is unlikely that he'll stick around after he hits free agency, simply because the Rays don't spend their money on pitchers like Shields, and even if they did, there's probably not enough to keep him around.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>I'm not Dayton Moore (I promise), but it's a little hard to imagine that the Royals' general manager would deal Myers for someone like James Shields (or Jon Lester, for that matter). Even if the Rays throw in some sweeteners, it'd be hard to see a deal like this taking place. But if something like that DID come up, given the surplus of starting pitching in St. Pete, Andrew Friedman and company should jump at the chance.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>But what if the Royals want to hold out for something a little bit better to part with Wil Myers?</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>
<span>David Price</span>, for all intents and purposes, will likely be a Ray for another three seasons. Unlike Shields, I can see Friedman and company wanting to keep the 2012 AL Cy Young winner in Tampa on a free agent contract. Like Shields, I imagine the cost of retaining David Price may be prohibitive. Though I see Price as the type of player, like <span>Evan Longoria</span>, who is worth significant money and years on a contract, I'm not sure Price will take a discount to stay with the Rays. If he doesn't, and he continues at a roughly-similar level of performance in 2013-2015, he'll be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history coming into the 2016 season. And that's not even to mention the nice, fat arbitration raises he's earning with things like sub-3.00 ERAs and 200-strikeout seasons and BBWAA hardware.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>In my opinion, you keep Price for the next three years, because he's a true ace, #1 starter type of pitcher -- if you can. If the Royals are willing to take a combination of James Shields and someone like <span>Brandon Guyer</span> (or really anyone not named Moore, Hellickson, Jennings, Longoria, or Zobrist) for Wil Myers, you make that deal first.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>But young players like Wil Myers (and <span>Jurickson Profar</span> of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>, though I'm not sure he's on the market) are also rare. And the market for players in MLB is continuing to shift more towards younger, cost-controlled players who can provide real value with bat and glove, and away from veterans who collect paychecks for past performance, rather than current / future production.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>It would be a steep price to pay to lose the reigning AL Cy Young winner, or Ray-for-life James Shields to get a player who could end up being a platoon outfielder if he busts. But make no mistake: in three years the Rays might not have Price or Shields on the roster anyways -- and a deal for someone like Myers may never be on the table again.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>While I'm not advocating that the team shut things down and rebuild instead of contending for the 2013 AL East title, but I do think that when a player of this caliber becomes available, you consider all reasonably sane options in an attempt to snatch him up. Even if that means losing an All-Star starter.</div>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/11/30/3701422/tampa-bay-rays-kansas-city-royals-trade-rumors-wil-myers-james-shields-david-priceBryan Grosnick2012-11-27T09:01:23-05:002012-11-27T09:01:23-05:00Evan Longoria's extension: good idea or bad idea?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y0hzbz8Q71MLA-islqRjRc5cr0A=/0x31:4000x2698/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/3955775/20121101_kkt_sv7_682.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On Monday, the Rays announced that they've signed franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria to an extension through the 2022 season. Was it a wise move to ink the injury-plagued third baseman for such a long time?</p> <p>The hardest thing for a baseball team to do is to draft, develop and then <i>keep</i> a franchise talent. Especially when a team is considered a small-market or small-payroll franchise. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a> are one of those teams, and have a history of watching their best players (<span>Carl Crawford</span> and <span>B.J. Upton</span>, for two) walking in free agency. Well, as of Monday, things have changed. A player who may already be the greatest in Rays history, All-Star third baseman <span>Evan Longoria</span>, signed a huge extension that will keep him in Tampa until 2022 at the earliest.</p>
<p>So, let's talk for just a moment about what a transcendent talent Evan is, then we'll talk cash money.</p>
<p>Evan Longoria burst on to the national scene in 2008 after being drafted third overall in the 2007 Rule 4 Draft out of Long Beach. He basically ran roughshod over the league, en route to a Rookie of the Year selection, an All-Star game appearance, and a .272/.343/.531 triple-slash line in 122 games. Only a few weeks into his major-league career, the Rays and Longoria hammered out a six-year, $17.5 million extension that would eventually become the most team-friendly in the league. And, oh yeah, he hit six home runs in the postseason as the Rays made their first World Series appearance in team history.</p>
<p>The star third baseman followed up the dynamic rookie season by, basically, providing three more seasons of phenomenal performance. That $17.5 million dollars over six years? Well, he was worth that, or more, in EACH of the following 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. In 2009, Longoria posted career highs in plate appearances (671), runs (100), RBI (113), and home runs (33) -- career highs that still hold up as his best today. In 2010, the counting stats went down, but the OBP went up (.372) and he stole 15 bases. wOBA, a stat that accounts for all aspects of a player's hitting, had him at .376 for the season, only .001 less than his 2009 season, despite pitching skill being up across the league. And 2011 was pretty epic as well, despite Longoria having terrible luck on balls in play and missing a few games with injury. He still managed a .244/.355/.495 triple-slash line and 31 homers, and that would have been quite a bit higher had he not been one of the unluckiest players in baseball during that season.</p>
<p>Longoria's 2012 was easily the worst of his nascent career, and the only season in which he did not receive an MVP vote. Of course, this is because he only played in 74 games, after suffering a debilitating hamstring injury that caused him to miss much of the season. And, according to many advanced metrics like UZR and DRS, Longoria wasn't his usual elite self in the field, during the 50 games he was actually able to man third base. Nevertheless, in the small sample, Longoria put up the best hitting numbers, at least in terms of rates, in his career. A wRC+ of 146 means that Longoria was nearly 50% better than a league-average hitter, and a triple-slash line of .289/.369/.527 is top-shelf.</p>
<p>That's (most of) five seasons of play, but Evan Longoria has already put quite a stamp on the Rays franchise. Make no mistake, Evan Longoria is already a world-class talent at his position. A neat way to see how Evan Almighty stacks up against the all-time greats at the hot corner is through the <a href="http://www.hallofstats.com/" target="_blank">Hall of Stats</a>, a site dedicated to the creation of an alternative Hall of Fame based on a player's statistical achievements. According to the Hall of Stats, which takes a player's Baseball-Reference WAR and Wins Above Average, adjusts and weights based on season length, league, and position. A Hall Rating of 100 means that a player is worthy of induction to the Hall of Stats, which has the same number of members as the real Hall of Fame.</p>
<p>Evan Longoria, who has only suited up for the Rays since 2008, <a href="http://www.hallofstats.com/player/longoev01" target="_blank">already has a Hall Rating of 62</a>. Amazingly, Longoria is not all that far away from having a Hall of Fame-caliber career, at least statistically. For a guy with only 637 major league games under his belt, that's pretty phenomenal.</p>
<p>Another way to look at Longoria's statistics is through something called the <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/10/10/3475808/MLB-WAR-index-fWAR-bWAR-rWAR-WARP/in/3249037" target="_blank">WAR Index (WARi)</a>, a measurement I've developed to compare the disparate Wins Above Replacement numbers developed by the great minds at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">FanGraphs</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball-Reference</a>. My WAR Index is scaled so that, in a given season, a player with 0 WARi is replacement-level, 2 WARi is starting-caliber, 5 WARi is an All-Star, and 8 WARi or more is an MVP candidate.</p>
<p>WARi has Longoria at 27.0 WARi over his first five seasons, which averages out to about 5.4 WARi per season. That means, despite missing more than half the available plate appearances in one season, and missing time due to either injuries (2011) or time in the minors (2008), Longo has <i>still</i> performed at a slightly-above-All-Star level of performance over his first five seasons. In other words, he's not quite 2001-2005 <span>Albert Pujols</span>, but he's also not chopped liver. Longoria's been close to as valuable as Carl Crawford was over his entire career in Tampa, despite playing three-and-a-half fewers seasons in the Trop.</p>
<p>So the Rays have a cornerstone third baseman on the team -- a player with a bat that would play at any position, but who also provides exceptional defense at a critical position. Scouts love him, statheads love him, Rays fans love him. And though he's had a few tough breaks with injury, he's already on a Hall of Fame trajectory.</p>
<p>So signing Evan to a longer extension should have been a no-brainer, right?</p>
<p>The simple answer is yes, and the longer answer is still, probably, yes. But Longoria was on a contract that made the Lousiana Purchase look like a fair deal. Instead of paying minimal salary for a few years, then going through arbitration, the Rays bought out six seasons of Longoria (2008-2013) for the aforementioned $17.5 million. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Longoria could have made that $17.5 million just in arbitration for 2012, but at any rate, it turned out that this deal was a truly unbelievable steal. In addition, the Rays tacked on three club option years, due to pay out another $30 million (plus a few incentives) from 2014-2016. The Rays could have had Longoria locked up through what was likely to be the most productive nine years of his career, for under $50 million dollars. That's two years of <span>Ryan Howard</span>, people.</p>
<p>The new contract has the Rays paying that $47.5 million through 2016, those option years are now picked up. But from 2017 to 2022, the Rays will be on the hook for $100 million more, including a buyout on a 2023 option year. If you average the amount of Longoria's contracts over the fifteen years, it comes out to about $10 million per year over the 15 years. But before the new extension, it was something closer to $47.5 million over nine years, or a little over $5 million. Those last six years will fall during his age-31 through age-36 seasons, which will likely be on the wrong end of the aging curve. One wouldn't really expect that a player, even one of Longoria's skillset, would get better during that part of his career. Power peaks earlier in a player's career, and speed and defense certainly tend to diminish with age.</p>
<p>Honestly, I'm a fan of this deal. I like that the Rays are committing long-term to a player, because usually they're not able to. The team had to bail on Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, and will probably have to do the same with <span>James Shields</span> in the near future. Longoria's probably better than all of those other players, and he's also shown willingness to trade several million dollars for cost certainty.</p>
<p>According to generally-accepted principles of valuing a win, the average value per win above replacement is probably somewhere between $4 and $6 million. If Longoria is able to play at a two-win level over those 2017-2022 seasons, which is pretty likely given his previous levels of performance, he'll probably be worth the annual value of his contract. If he's still producing at a four-win level by 2022, then he'll even be worth the actual dollar value of the last year of that contract.</p>
<p>Thanks to this new extension, Evan Longoria isn't exactly the bargain he used to be. But, at the same time, he's still probably underpaid given his massive talent and track record of success. Evan Longoria on a $5 million per-year contract is flat-out insane, but Evan Longoria on a $10 million per-year contract is just a bit crazy. Both deals will probably work out very well for the Rays, as a talent like Longoria does not come around too often. Even the Rays are willing to make a big investment when it comes to locking up a player like him.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/11/27/3694594/evan-longoria-contract-extension-tampa-bay-rays-valueBryan Grosnick2012-11-14T11:41:49-05:002012-11-14T11:41:49-05:00Subjective analysis of the Marlins-Blue Jays deal
<figure>
<img alt="Giancarlo Stanton stands alone in Miami" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-MKIET2eWSMhbF1ioudUvF3J4E8=/0x0:3875x2583/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/3248313/20120914_jla_su8_266.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Giancarlo Stanton stands alone in Miami | Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jeffrey Loria and the Marlins front office should be ashamed of themselves. But not for trading away the team's best players, for the shoddy return, their attempt to swindle the city of Miami out of taxpayer money, and for having no clear plan to rebuild.</p> <p><i>Writer's Note: For a less subjective, more objective analysis of this trade, please check out <a target="_blank" href="http://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/11/14/3642740/objective-miami-marlins-blue-jays-jose-reyes-josh-johnson">this other article</a>. It's also written by me, and has a more measured take.</i></p>
<p>For Marlins fans, the date 11/13/12 will live in infamy.</p>
<p>On Tuesday afternoon, the Marlins traded almost every good player left on their already-gutted major league roster for a host of young players. Some of the players coming back are major leaguers, some are minor leaguers, but there's no transcendent talent coming in as a result of the deal. Beyond that, there's a host of other issues that crop up as a result of this trade. I'll outline them below</p>
<h4>The Talent Gap</h4>
<p>The 2013 <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a> are going to be the worst team in baseball, and it's not even going to be close. As it stands today, the team has a $25 million dollar payroll, which is about a quarter of what the team's payroll was last season. It will be the lowest payroll in the majors by an enormous margin. Small-market teams like the <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Athletics</a> and <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> will pay twice as much money as the Marlins to field very competitive teams. Large market teams like the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> and <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</a> will pay up to eight times as much.</p>
<p>My objective analysis tells me that the team will be the worst in the majors, and it won't be too close, in 2013. Given how terrible the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Houston Astros</a> were in 2012 -- AND that the 'Stros moving to the tougher AL West -- that's saying something.</p>
<p>Beyond the simple fact that the team is not paying to employ good baseball players (though value isn't always tied to money, the correlation is there in many instances), the team did not earn back an A or A- prospect or major league regular as a result of this trade. Usually, when a team sacrifices so much talent, they get back a very, very good prospect. I'm not even talking about a <span>Mike Trout</span> or a <span>Bryce Harper</span> here. I'm talking about a Travis D'Arnaud. The prospects that the Jays gave up as part of this deal probably don't fall in their top-four prospects. They may not fall under their top-five. I'd rather have gotten D'Arnaud, or Aaron Sanchez or Noah Syndegaard than any of the seven other players the Marlins got in this deal.</p>
<p>It appears that the real desire in this deal was to drop the heavily-backloaded contracts of a few talented players, rather than get anything of excellent substance in return for these stars. If, for example, the Marlins removed Reyes and Buehrle from this trade, and the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Blue Jays</a> removed Jake Marisnick (a solid but unexceptional outfield prospect coming to Miami) and <span>Yunel Escobar</span>, you'd have a trade of bits and pieces from Toronto (and Justin Nicolino) for Josh Johnson, <span>John Buck</span>, and <span>Emilio Bonifacio</span>. This would be a baseball trade that might make sense for both teams. And I'd even bet both teams would accept this trade, in a vacuum, based on the players and the team's needs.</p>
<p>But the Marlins were willing to dump the bloated contracts that they just gave out to Reyes and Buehrle, and it didn't appear very important what they got in return. The team should have either kept good players on the team, in an attempt to field a *somewhat* competitive franchise, eaten some of these players' salaries in an attempt to get better players in return, or demanded a more substantive return anyways. These new Marlins are not good enough to replace the outgoing players, and the team will not use the money to sign new talent.</p>
<h4>The <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span> Issue</h4>
<p>One initial expected piece of fallout should be that the Marlins' best player before and after the trade, Giancarlo Stanton, cannot be expected to sign a long-term extension with the club. Michael Jong at FishStripes advocated the team doing this as part of a three-pronged approach to the 2013 offseason, and I heartily agreed with the sentiment. Unfortunately ...</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple</p>
— Giancarlo Stanton (@Giancarlo818) <a data-datetime="2012-11-13T23:57:42+00:00" href="https://twitter.com/Giancarlo818/status/268502933832888322">November 13, 2012</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></p>
<p>This is not a good sign. This is not a player motivated to sign a team-friendly extension with the only team he has ever played for.</p>
<p>This is a player who is a transcendent offensive talent and very good defensive outfielder. And within five years, he will be a New York Yankee or Los Angeles Dodger.</p>
<p>Now, granted, there's a good chance that good Giancarlo was going to play for a different ballclub in 2017 anyways, but it may have been avoidable before. Now, it's a pretty safe bet. In fact, with Stanton's disappointment -- and the fact that he could hardly be a more valuable commodity on the free market -- the Marlins may even be best served dealing him now for several prospects. I hate the idea of trading a one-of-a-kind player at the age of 22.</p>
<h4>The Miami-Dade County Issue</h4>
<p>As you may have heard, the Marlins moved into a new stadium for 2012, complete with a team name re-branding and new uniforms. The Marlins didn't foot the whole bill for the new stadium, they actually got $400+ million in public financing for their stadium. For years, we'd heard that the Marlins could not afford to field a competitive team in Miami without a new stadium.</p>
<p>Well, now the team has their new stadium, one that has been funded by the Florida taxpayers. And it appears as if Jeffrey Loria and David Samson still cannot afford to field a competitive team. I think we can safely associate this run of cost-cutting with a very unethical way to make money off of Miami-Dade County at the taxpayers' expense. If the team was continuing to spend money on the team, one could (uneasily) understand the deal: get out of big, backloaded contracts in order to spend the money more wisely going forward.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this does not seem to be what will happen. Chances are, the Miami Marlins ownership will pocket the money and go home, leaving a team of Triple-A players and minimum-salary vets to chase 40 wins. And the Miami-Dade County will pay several billion dollars for this to happen in their backyard.</p>
<p>This is a trade that emphasizes that Jeffrey Loria is a good business-person, and a horrible steward for an MLB franchise. The Marlins have essentially tanked three seasons (2013, 2014 and 2015) worth of games, lost all their good players and alienated the one remaining star, all in an attempt to make the management of the team richer. At least, that's how it appears at this point. I can't help but feel incredibly sorry for the die-hard Marlins fans, if any still exist after this debacle.</p>
<p>Maybe in the future, <span>Christian Yelich</span> will become the next <span>Jim Thome</span> or Willie Mays. Maybe the team will see some of the moderate-risk prospects turn into legitimate stars. But even if that happens, the team's management cannot be trusted to manage the roster, and the fans' expectations in a way that will make the team compelling to watch. The plan of breaking a team down in order to build it back up is actually pretty smart and admirable. In a vacuum, I'd even recommend it. But the way that this trade was pulled off gives people the impression that Loria and the Marlins have no intention of building the team back up. And, unfortunately, the city of Miami and the fans of the Marlins are going to pay for it.</p>
https://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/11/14/3642748/subjective-miami-marlins-blue-jays-jose-reyes-josh-johnsonBryan Grosnick