And now, it's a little scary. A quarter into the season and I'm off to the best start in picking games I think I've ever had. I've feared the 6-10 week, yet it has never come. Now things get a little more tricky with bye weeks and trips to London to deal with.
Now more than ever I'm fearful of the Football Gods making a mockery of my success and cutting me down to size with a 3-10 week.
Be warned, faithful reader - your trust in me is unfounded. I truly am terrible at picking games. I don't know where this run has come from and I for one know is going to end soon enough.
For now, read on...
Last Week: 12-4 75% Season: 47-17 73% Upset Specials: 5-1 83% Bucs Picks: 3-1 75%
Bye: Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Upset Special #1 Carolina 30, New Orleans 27 - The Panthers have been competitive in every game this season but just make the wrong mistake at the wrong time. Neither team has a defense and we all know what Brees and the Saints offense can do. Yet call it a gut feeling but I think this Panther team is ready to upset someone, who better than their division rival Saints?
Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 10 - Oh those poor, but feisty Colts. They've played tough football the last couple of weeks and face a Chiefs team that finally got off the snide. The Colts aren't an 0-16 team and they'll beat someone, my bet is it's KC.
Upset #2 Buffalo Bills 32, Philadelphia 24 - Could it be ? The Dream Team falls to 1-4? Indeed. The Bills stubbed their collective toes last week in Cincy but I'm still a believer in Fitz's Force. The Eagles have a stink on them right now...I'm not sure what it is but perhaps its the result of Jeffrey Lurie's mind meld with Daniel Snyder this past off-season...Your thoughts are my thoughts...your mind is my mind....we are one.
NY Giants 20, Seattle 10 - The Seahags head cross-country once again for a New York style beatdown at the hands of the Football Giants.
Cincinnati 20, Jacksonville 10 - Surgeon General's Warning: Watching the Jaguars play football could be hazardous to your health. Known effects include bleeding eyes, the sudden urge to vomit and the triggering of your flight instinct.
Tennessee 20, Pittsburgh 16 - Okay, I finally admit I was wrong about the Flaming Thumbtacks (thanks BSPN) and their QB
David Hasselhoff Matt Hasselbeck. Tennessee has to be the quietest 3-1 in the league, yet here they are poised to keep pace with the chosen ones in Houston. They head to Pittsburgh to face a team that is battered and bruised from the window closing right in their collective snoz.
Houston 30, Oakland 27 - Who would have thought a week 5 contest between the Texans and Raiders could have far reaching playoff implications? Yet here we are. I'm not afraid to admit I like what the Raiders are cookin', but Houston's at home and even without Andre Johnson I think they have enough fire power to squeak by Count Dracula's team.
Minnesota 20, Arizona 17 - I'm going to keep picking the Vikings. They're not as bad as 0-4, they just haven't played a complete game. I think they finally hold on to a 2nd half lead against the Cardinals - who look like they should be a good team, but aren't.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco - This is finally the week I pick against a team from the Bay area. But which bay? Tampa or San Francisco? Read my preview of the Bucs-Niners game to find out.
New England 23, NY Jets 16 - Sorry folks, I just don't believe in the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Tom Brady's back on track and the Pats love anything more than making Rex Ryan eat his pre-season words.
San Diego 30, Denver 13 - Come on John Fox, just give the people what they want. It will be great theater for all of us. Besides, Kyle Orton isn't making anyone in Miami say, "Damn, we should have made that deal."
Green Bay 30, Atlanta 10 - Like the Jets, I'm not a believer in the Falcons. The Packers will lose soon - their defense is simply terrible, but it won't be this week.
Upset Special #3 - Chicago 23, Detroit 16 - Monday Night Football, Lions fans going crazy, Ford Field will be simply electric. Still, the Lions have been hanging on to their undefeated status with bare white knuckles. I think the Bears spoil the party and make Detroit wish Randall Hank brought his rowdy friends.