Well, that's what The Book Blog suggested today. The venerable Tom Tango dusted off an old and fun formula for predicting playoff odds based solely on payroll size.
↵The results were, shall we say, parts inspiring and parts laughable.
↵The Tampa Bay Rays had a -1% of winning 89 games giving their wackily-low payroll (they won 91). They had a 44% chance of winning enough to reach the playoffs -- second worst in the league only to the Kansas City Royals.
↵For contrast's sake, the Florida Marlins had an 8% chance of reaching the 89-win mark and a 61% of reaching the playoffs (they actually won 72). The New York Yankees, meanwhile, had a 218% chance of a playoff run. Go figure.
↵This is actually one of the reasons the MLB still lacks -- and may never get -- a salary cap. With so many teams spending a lot but not reaching the playoffs (the Red Sox had a 174% chance of a playoff showing), the richest teams do not always dominate the poor ones.
↵Yeah, they don't always dominate them, but they usually do.